Mazel Tov Sam Darnold. Seriously. To go from the Jets > Panthers > Niners > Seattle (Super Bowl) is an awesome achievement. Darnold’s GM in Seattle is John Schneider. Schneider’s adversary in New England is Eliot Wolf.

Wolf is the son of longtime Packers GM and Brett Favre steward Ron Wolf. As a junior in college, Schneider wrote a letter to Ron volunteering his services as a college scout. He’d eventually make it to director of football ops before jumping to Seattle. Eliot Wolf climbed the ranks of the Packers org, made a few pit stops, and secured the Patriots GM job. Pro football is such a small, small family when you get right down to it. Which is great for these two franchises, but probably annoying if you’re a Steelers fan waking up to Mike McCarthy becoming your new head coach.

I’ve been a little harsh on baseball mostly because the offseason has been a little harsh on us (fans). If you’re following the narrative, most believe 2026 will be the last full season before a labor stoppage interrupts most of 2027. That’s horrible news, but not unlike anything baseball has done for the last two decades. Remember steriods? Sure, sure. Remember the mini-dead ball era when no one could score? How about the Astros banging a trash can on their way to stealing a World Series title? Don’t forget the league intentionally juicing the baseball in 2019. If this sport could get out its dang way, maybe some of these baby boy owners would see enough jingle in their pockets to buy a free agent or two.

Alright, enough. Enough argument driven by Emotion. What we’re going to do today is outline the forces shaping this labor battle so that you can have informed dinner conversation with your family. Let’s begin:

- Television contracts: In short, at the local level, they’ve evaporated. As of right now, 9 teams don’t have a dedicated, local television partner to broadcast games. They will likely partner with the league to offer a streaming alternative, but the local television money faucet has dried up in Atlanta, Cincy, KC, Detroit, LA (Angels), Miami, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay. At the national level, Commissioner Rob Manfred has positioned national rights deal to expire after 2028. His hope: a secured labor agreement starting in 2027 will entice Netflix, ESPN, Amazon, and Youtube to bid on national distribution that mirrors what CBS and Fox do for the NFL. With enough national cash, maybe Manfred can ease the sting of local money’s disappearance.

- Revenue sharing: I don’t have a prediction for how this sorts out, but I want to share how I think of it. Let’s take ticket sales for example. The home team does not keep 100% of ticket sales. The Dodgers don’t get to keep all $5k of the ultra-luxury front row seat they sell. They must contribute gate receipts as part of a “local revenue” contribution to the League office. In total, all teams are supposed contribute up to 48% of their local revenue. Why? Well, it’s hard to play a game with one team. The Reds need the Pirates to show up for slaughter. Otherwise, they’d make precisely zero dollars. Small market teams can complain all they want about the Dodgers ability to generate revenue, but understand that the more revenue the Dodgers generate, the more the small market receives. If the Dodgers STINK, and no one goes to the games, that’s less money shipped to Miami. Small markets should have a very motivation to make sure the Big Dawgs keep people in the seats.

- Salary Cap: It all ties together people. If you solve issues one and two for small market owners, then you might not even here much about a salary cap. But that’s not how it’s sold to fans is it. I’ve questioned what percentage of fans actually care want a salary cap, and according to one data point I exposed myself to today, people really do want one. As much as 67% of polled entrants are pro-cap. Weird, but okay. Let me be clear: you do not need to pretend that a cap won’t stifle the earning power of the league’s best players. You should also know that the league’s smallest earners will get a raise. Whether that conforms to your personal economic theory is up to you. Whether it guarantees parity to a sport that waited 25 years between repeat champions is also up to you. We’ll talk more about salary caps in this space. Tonight is just to get your feet wet.

If you research these three pillars through lenses I’ve provided, you won’t get to a magical labor agreement that satisfies everyone. But if you want to exercise critical thinking for 3 hours a day, then treat yourself to the MLB. They need an answer from someone.