Lunchtime - an excused absence from team meetings this morning. It’s Mrs. KMARK’s birthday!

No NBA or NHL playoffs yesterday for the first time since they kicked off. A rather pedestrian news cycle on Monday. Things to watch this week:

- Conference Finals (NBA & NHL)

- Chuck Schwab Challenge (PGA), PGA back to Dallas for some reason.

- Big West Tournament (NCAA Baseball), check in on your Young Boys.

Pitter patter, Hairy Putter. An H.P Original:

I’m kinda ashamed to admit it, but as a die-hard baseball fan of nearly 30 years, I’ve spent about 29 of those years not giving a damn about anything resembling “advanced analytics”. I’ve paid close attention to the details of the game since I was a kid, played at fairly high levels, and developed what I still consider to be a keen eye for a ballplayer that truly impacts the game. 

Reflecting on my baseball life, I really hope I wasn’t behaving like a stodgy old-head, but rather a victim of poor marketing – coinage such as Sabermetrics and FanGraphs sounded like tech bubble fallouts instead of dugout staples. 

In my mind, the best version of baseball exists in a story – whether it be recounting the Gagne vs. Bonds AB in 2004, Field of Dreams, or Ted Williams’ military service. But the simple fact of the modern day baseball matter is that they play 162 and more often than not it’s tough to find a whole lot to care about when the White Sox visit the Pirates on August 3rd. It’s a grind (as they say) for us fans too. 

However, the fine folks behind terms such as BABIP, wRC+, DRS, and FIP have actually done all of us a huge favor – they’re helping us stay plugged into the nuance, depth and most importantly, fun of the game in the midst of the noise and distraction of everyday life ($129.99 to mlb.tv helps as well). We’ll save the exercise of explaining what each of these fancy metrics means and why they’re so important – that’s better served by folks much smarter than me. But since we here at KMARK still can’t help but be romantic about baseball, let’s take a look at some of our favorite early-season stories with a smattering of analytical context to send you on your way. 

Javy Baez - Easily my favorite Cub from the 2016 run, seeing Javy Baez cast off to complete obscurity and historically awful Whiff % and BABIP hurt my soul. There was a very real possibility he was done in my mind, but with the Tigers late-season resurgence and playoff run in 2024, AJ Hinch was determined to figure out how to get the most out of Javy’s talent (and contract). The somehow restored 2025 version is playing elite CF (while still platooning at SS) and his .353 wOBA is his highest since his damn near MVP season of 2018 (shoutout Yeli). Does MLB have a comeback player of the year? Does KMARK have a vote?

Pete Crow-Armstrong - Losing Baez in (and the rest of the gang) in 2021 stunk, but the promise of young PCA was just enough to keep Cubs fans (me) on the hook in the years that followed. I knew the kid was toolsy (potentially 5 toolsy), but I’d be lying if I thought we’d be getting a player more electric than peak Baez come 2025. But that’s exactly what PCA has been. His 12 dingers, 38 RBI and .886 OPS have carried the offense at times and his league-high Swing and league-low Walk % 's channel Baez himself. But when you’re hitting .500 on the first pitch of your ABs boasting an MLB tops 7.9 Def rating, you’re just a bat out of hell. We’ll see how long he can keep the lights on at Wrigley this summer.

Cal Raleigh - The Big Dumper is big thumping. That’s the whole story really. He’s easily the best offensive catcher in baseball, launching 15 taters with a 170 wRC+ and .573xSLG. He’s also a thick boy switch hitter and I just think that’s an awesome sight, personally. His positional value and 2.6 fWAR should have him firmly in the MVP conversation, if not for a man named Aaron Judge.

Jacob Wilson - The KMARK “local boy” and son of All-Star SS, Jack Wilson, Jacob is quickly making a name for himself in front of hundreds out in Sacramento (no disrespect to the fans – John Fisher is shameful). He’s well in line to take home AL ROY honors and potentially find himself in the starting lineup of the ASG, which is wild when you consider he started the season sharing the middle infield with a more highly touted prospect (from the same high school, mind you) in Max Muncy (the other, soon to be real, one). He carries identical 5.2 K and BB %’s and on May 6th I texted KMARK letting him know that Wilson had 3 walk off hits and 6 strikeouts. Absurd bat to ball stuff we’re talking about here. Plenty more to come from Jacob (and this A’s squad) in years to come.

Kyle Stowers - Man, do the Orioles want a redo from last year’s deal which sent Stowers and top prospect Connor Norby down to Miami for Trevor Rodgers (playing ball for the Norfolk Tides now). Not that anyone could have seen what Stowers would turn into however – he’s 3rd in all of baseball in Barrels/PA % and you wanna guess who he’s behind? Judge and Ohtani, that’s right. Unbelievable stuff for a 27 year old that’s really putting it together to the tune of a .940 OPS and 94th percentile Batting Run Value (shoutout Baseball Savant). 

Andy Pages - Speaking of breakouts, look no further than Pages, who’s played all over the OF for LA and provided some much needed offensive consistency alongside Freddie Freeman and Will Smith while the rest of the roster gets their early seasons knicks and bruises out of the way. Pages $770K deal is sure to blow up during arbitration, but for now he’s absolutely one of the best values in baseball, which is just somehow perfect for the Dodgers. His offensive game is interesting – he’s near the league high in LA Sweet Spot % with 41.5 but below average Hard Hit % of 31 and is still producing an .827 OPS. His fielding is where he stands out, however. His 3 Outs Above Average is exceptional overall Fielding Run Value of 5 has him in the 96th percentile. 

As always with baseball, countless variables to examine and endless storylines to consider. Stay tuned for the next installment as we’ll flip from swingers to throwers and talk about some of the arms flashing in the early going and maybe hand out a few superlatives across the league.