But first, baseball:

AL Division Leaders: Astros (dammit), Tigers, Yankees

NL Division Leaders: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies

AL Wild Card: Rays, Jays, Mariners

NL Wild Card: Mets, Brewers, Cardinals

Sads: Braves, Dbacks, Red Sox

Trade Deadline Candidates: Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Carlos Correa, Marcell Ozuna

Narratives for July 4th BBQ’s:

- Why are the Mariners perpetually fighting for the Wild Card if HOU was supposed to have a down year? Does Jeremy Pena’s injury open a door for SEA to take the division?

- Every year, a team catches fire in the second half to steal a division. Can the Mets get out of their funk? Do the Padres put it together (7.5 games back)?

- MLB is on track to set attendance records for the season and an individual game (Bristol Motor Speedway is hosting a Braves game). MLB’s television situation is very fluid (ESPN is out). What’s the health of the sport today? MLB’s been a streaming leader since the early 2000’s. Are they developing a model that other sports will adopt?

Gotta be phone on, pen ready when NBA free agency kicks off. Really no reason to publish these when deals are coming hot and heavy. The Wall Street Journal would combust if it had to cover basketball.

Dame Gets Stretched, Bucks Get Myles Turner

The Stretch Provision was dead until the Bucks cooked this up. By waiving and stretching Dame, the Bucks agree to hold $22ish million of dead money on their cap sheet for the next five years. That’s one good player’s worth of money that Milwaukee agrees to hold vacant. The reward: Myles Turner.

It’s a bad move. This offseason has seen teams split one good player on an expensive deal into two contributors. Milwaukee did the exact opposite and they didn’t have depth to start with. Denver broke Michael Porter, Jr’s $40m per year into Cam Johnson and whoever they get with the mid-level exception. That’s the two for one teams are trying to copy. The Bucks didn’t have that option with Dame due to his achilles injury, but his existing deal only had two years left on it. Now they owe Lilliard’s ghost for the next five.

Myles Turner is a great fit next to Giannis, but neither should get comfortable. The Bucks have ZERO perimeter players. Turner secured $40m more than what Indiana offered. He tried to stay a Pacer, but $100m has a much better ring to it than $60m. It’d be hard to imagine the Bucks doing anything without running it by Giannis, but I think this hastens his departure. They’re going to be bad next year. A Giannis trade could still happen before training camp. For Turner, he’s eligible to be traded in December. His contract relative to performance still makes him very much an asset. He will 100% rent not buy a place in Milwaukee. As I’m writing this, I think the Bucks saw an opportunity to acquire Turner with the strategy of flipping him for more than they could flip Dame. Tearing this roster down to the studs now starts with a Giannis trade and a future Turner trade (instead of just Giannis). They can swallow the dead money for Lilliard much easier if they know they’re going to STINK (and have a young cheap roster).

Last note - the Bucks might have the league’s messiest ownership structure. Jimmy Haslam, Wes Edens, and Jamie Dinan each own 25%. The other 25% is owned by more than 10 different minority investors. You might know Haslam for his disastrous run owning the Cleveland Browns. He strong-armed the Deshaun Watson trade and fully guaranteed him $230m (never been done before or since). He’s the new kid on this block having bought out prior co-owner Marc Lasry last year. My guess, Haslam swung vote with one of Edens and Dinan to kick start this tear down. He’s done it 1000 times in Cleveland. His experience with Deshaun Watson gives him the unique ability to stomach paying players that never play. Dame is the first domino. Expect Doc Rivers to leave shortly. Giannis will follow next. Myles Turner could be a Laker by January. Thanks Jim.

Boston Ducks the Second Apron

I’ve been marinating on this and have to fire it off. By most accounts, the Celtics saved $187m in tax payments by trimming about $27m in actual player salaries. That’s gigantic. The NBA’s new media deal distributes about $194m per team next year. That number rises annually over the course of the 11yr/$76b deal. Yes, NBA teams generate buckets and buckets of revenue, but the second apron tax alone would have absorbed Boston’s biggest revenue stream. Using one revenue stream just to pay taxes is too tough to swallow (especially with no Tatum). The Second Apron didn’t kill the Celtics valuation, but man, it swallowed their dynasty.