It’s Yacht Week in Europe and the NBA isn’t going to let the Euro’s have all the fun. Lebron, his manager (Maverick Carter) and Nikola Jokic’s European manager (Misko Raznatovic) met up in St. Tropez this week for chilled rose, perhaps langoustine, and even a little shop talk. Carter is spearheading a $5b fundraising effort to organize a touring basketball league similar to Formula 1 or LIV Golf. 6 men’s and 6 women’s teams would globetrot the world.

Not to be outdone, but with less sun, NBA Comissioner Adam Silver met yesterday with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to pitch him and potential investors on an NBA Europe concept. For the moment, investors for both leagues include Arabian sovereign wealth funds, private equity giants (KKR, Redbird, CVC, etc…) and ultra HNI’s. Carter’s already received investment commitments and the rumored groups don’t seem to overlap between potential leagues.

Is there a catalyst for this activity? Silver shot down NBA expansion rumors this summer and isn’t sold on the idea that the NBA needs two more teams. Lebron’s made no secret of his desire to own an NBA franchise and seemed to be angling for the future Las Vegas team. Is Carter’s proposal simply a leverage play and fundraising effort to bolster Lebron’s chances at Vegas? $5b is a similar amount to what an owner would have to pay in expansion fees if a new franchise is created.

Why Europe and why no domestic expansion? The NBA’s national TV deals are locked in for the next 10 years, so two new teams in desirable media markets (Vegas and Seattle) won’t necessarily change the revenue calculation for the league even if it can offer media partners a Vegas game instead of Charlotte. Sure, the next television contract could be more lucrative, but that isn’t negotiated this decade. The math is not that complex. Yes, the existing owners would sell two franchise licenses, collect the money, and distribute it amongst themselves. But, in this scenario, they then split future league revenues among 32 partners (instead of 30). Smaller piece of a bigger pie even if there’s a giant scoop of whip cream on the first slice. As for Lebron, he’s desperate to own an NBA franchise. It’s one reason he might play until he’s 45. He needs the money. When Silver cooled the waters on Vegas, he pivoted. Why own a team when you can own a league? Why not threaten to start a rival league (and divert TV revenues, players, and interest) and introduce yourself to an investment community if all you really have to do is have ChatGPT punch up a business plan and your manager organize meetings on yachts in the Mediterranean. GOOD PLAN!

Silver sees more GREEN in organizing a European league and selling the broadcast rights than he does in selling two domestic franchise licenses. Is he right? IDK. Europe has a league. There’s deep fanbases in Madrid, Athens, Moscow, etc… Would those franchises pivot to the NBA Europe? How much investment does it take to lure talent away from Madrid? How much basketball can a European eat? It’s no coincidence he’s starting his pitch in the UK. The one country without an established basketball presence for him to compete with.

League formation is nothing new. It feels new because we’re in so deep with the NFL, NBA, and MLB. We’ve had league stability for 50 years. But remember, once upon a time, the NBA and ABA were real competitors for American basketball consumers. The NFL and MLB functioned with two distinct leagues (AFC/NFC, AL/NL) that would operate fairly independently before meeting in a championship. LIV did manage to spin itself up within two years. The global investment appetite for sports (and live sports television rights) is frothy right now.

I had no intention of writing this much about a leagues that don’t exist, but know this for sure, if you think Europe stops working in the summer, you’re wrong. They just work from yacht.

I’m out of breath and we haven’t even started talking about the MLB Trade Deadline. I had high hopes for the deadline this year. There’s a healthy mix of underperforming teams looking to sell and competing perennial contenders. This deadline doesn’t feature the one superstar from a small market on an expiring contract. That’s usually the best case scenario for teams looking to add. Think Manny Machado or Juan Soto. Still, teams that were recently good (because they have good players) like Tampa, Minnesota, Baltimore, Arizona, and Atlanta underachieved this year and should help feed LA, NY, Toronto, and Philly.

Let’s start with two deals:

- Eugenio Suarez to Seattle (from AZ)

- Jhoan Duran to Philly (from MIN)

These could go down as the two best players moved. Suarez is something of a late career bloomer but he’s chasing new teammate Cal Raleigh for the HR crown. His career arc reminds me a lot of Nelson Cruz. Duran is the typical flamethrowing reliever that every team wants to add for a playoff run. He’s a monster at the backend of the pen. Dave Dombrowski has spent his life mortgaging future assets to build competitive clubs and this deadline is no different. He shipped Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait to Minnesota. Abel is a former first round starting pitcher while Tait is a hugely regarded 18yr old catching prospect. It’s a perfect deadline deal for both clubs, but only happens because Minnesota didn’t win enough games (boo for them).

As for the rest of the league, it’s reliever shuffle:

- Steven Matz to BOS (from STL)

- Paul Sewald to DET (from CLE)

- Andrew Kittridge to Cubs (from BAL)

There’s more. Trust me. Why? Why always middle relievers en masse? Middle relievers is the most year to year volatile position group. Think you’re 5 deep in the pen in March and you’ll have two competent arms left in September. Teams tolerate Andrew Kittridge’s being bad (or average) for 3 of the last 5 years because if he’s pitching well this year, he can help. And continue helping in October. It’s what they do. Middle relievers run hot and cold throughout their career so catch em when they’re burning.

These guys aren’t moving but they should:

- Jose Ramirez (wasting away in CLE, affordable contract)

- Mike Trout (it’s time)

- Carlos Correa (whispers he’s going back to HOU)

- Jacob Degrom (has no trade clause, but should be back in NY)

Move any of the above and it’s a proper deadline. Stay tuned (until 6pm EST).