How long did it take you to get a meaningful raise? Was it your first job switch? One promotion? Three years and one All Star game? That’s what it takes in the NBA! Paolo Banchero signs a 5yr/$240m extension that can top out at $288m. I’m now 14 weeks into this newsletter and I can feel the payday around the corner. I can feel it!

Banchero has started every game (except the injured ones) of his career. He’s entirely turned the Magic franchise around and they’re hunting a top 3 seed in the East plus a deep playoff run.

In Duality of Man News, the Nationals fired President Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez Sunday (maybe they’ll start a buddy, buddy newsletter).

Rizzo had been with the Nats since 2006 and became the head man upstairs in 2009. The Nationals lone World Series (2019) was celebrated as Scouts over Nerds (Astros). Rizzo’s deep commitment to the scouting department and traditional baseball background was celebrated by the Old Guard. That proved to be the peak though. Six years of garbage baseball and he’s out. Rizzo will go down as perhaps the scouting world’s last GM though the label is a bit unfair. Every front office relies on data-driven decision making, even in D.C. The Nat’s have been quietly up for sale for a few years, and perhaps this shakeup proves attractive to a new ownership group.

If you think Paolo Banchero’s realtor didn’t call him yesterday, then you don’t know realtors like I do buddy. Here’s a few recommendations for how to spend those milli’s in Orlando (Maitland?):

- $12.5m 6b/10ba 10k sqft

- $12m 5bd/8ba 8k sqft

- $12m 6bd/9ba 14k sqft (Windermere)

Banchero is worth every penny of his extension. He’s everything a team hopes to draft #1. The gravity that he commands from the defense helps his teammates, and he’s talented enough to score through multiple defenders. You haven’t seen a ton of him. That’s okay. It’s only his fourth season. If you need a mental picture, think of a rudimentary Carmelo Anthony with more athleticism. Banchero might never have the shooting touch of prime Carmelo, but for the moment, his bounce and agility help him contribute from similar spots on the floor. Wanna see him score 50: Paolo Career High

A max rookie extension is nothing surprising in the NBA. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren will likewise sign their deals this summer. What’s got my noodle wigglin is the difference across sports in these first Big Checks. Let’s explore:

MLB - if you can survive the minors (2-4 years), and get to the Bigs, you’re looking at a minimum of 6 years before free agency. Those 6 years are entirely non-guaranteed. You can be cut at a moment’s notice. It’s one reason teams have been quick to exchange security (guaranteed years and money) in exchange for discounted rates relative to what players could earn if they sign as a free agent. Julio Rodriguez, Jackson Merrill, Ronald Acuna Jr, Garret Crochet are just a few examples of players signing before they hit the open market. None opted to play 6 years, hit the open market, and chase $750m like Juan Soto. The difference between these deals and the NBA: MLB players have significantly more to prove before they’re even lucky enough to get an early extension offer. They likewise have more to give up. As discussed previously, the NBA’s CBA’s are constructed to give teams every advantage to keep their stars. That’s how Orlando can offer $230m after 3 years of a player’s career. Even if Banchero waited 5 years, he’d enter the free agent market as a restricted free agent. Orlando could match a competing offer and retain his services. Waiting hardly pays off. Like most NBA players, Paolo can become an unrestricted free agent 8 years into his career (then sign with the Lakers). 6 non-guaranteed MLB years or 8 (including 5 extremely well compensated) years until NBA freedom.

NFL - forget making any money in this blood sport. First round picks enjoy three guaranteed years, and the best are quick to see their 5th-year team options picked up. From there, teams can hammer the franchise tag and lock a player up year to year. Extensions happen after 4 years but they never approach the dollar figures seen in the NBA. Crazy what that salary cap will do to ya! All told, splitting salaries across a 53 man roster does little favors to the Josh Allen’s and Pat Mahomes of the world. Banchero will quickly out earn them. Wanna look at Cooper Flagg’s future?

- Rookie Contract 2025-2028: $62.7m

- 30% Supermax Extension 2029-2033: $359m

- 35% Supermax Extension 2034-2038: $509m

Total: $930M (by age 31)

^ source: Spotrac

Coop’s got a ton of reasons to practice. That’s a billion dollars to earn by the time he’s Giannis’s age right now.

Athletes earning a bunch of money is nothing new. Nothing to drop your jaw. Earning differences between sports are interesting, but again, there’s logical reasons behind it. What should prompt further discussion is the future of free agency. Invented by baseball in 1975, we’re now 50 years into this experiment. Across sports, the mega free agent is dwindling, but definitely not dead. We just watched Soto, Shohei, and Judge become available in three consecutive off-seasons. That said, the incentives to get that crack at the bag are fewer than they were 10 years ago. What does player movement, player empowerment, and off-seasons look like if this piece of the leagues disappears?